week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Josh Walker
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.70 is 0.62 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Walker is a sell-high — his 2.08 ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.0%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~25.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.268 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.70 is 0.62 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
84 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —
84 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
lg avg .315 ▼−.060vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA2.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.02vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
30.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm −1.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.9% norm — expect it to rise.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
505 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.0%→24.3%signal0 K — K% 23.0% (signal) lifted to career ~25.2% → projected 24.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.70noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.70 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 5 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.