week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Chris Bassitt
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.92 +0.82 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.63WHIP 1.46W 0–0SV 0
Bassitt is a sell — the contact allowed is climbing and the strikeouts are gone
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %16.1%—−5.6% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
- Walk %8.3%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.92 +0.82 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
339 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —
339 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.338
lg avg .315 ▲+.023vs his norm —
460 / 200 TBF
xERA4.92
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.82vs his norm —
460 / 200 TBF
ERA4.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
102 / 200 IP
Strikeout %16.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −5.6% ▼
460 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
460 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.334
lg avg .295 ▲+.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
339 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
460 / 60 TBF
Chase %25.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
460 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
1731 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 16.1%→17.8%signal0 K — K% 16.1% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 17.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.92signal4.63 ERA — xERA 4.92 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.46 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.311 gives a 1.54 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.63 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.