week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Chris Bassitt
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 5.03 +0.93 vs league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling; move on.high 0.83 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 45ERA 4.70WHIP 1.47W 3–6SV 0
Bassitt is a sell — skill is below league and getting worse.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %14.2%—−7.5% ▼vs his ~21.7% career norm
- Walk %8.4%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.03 +0.93 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
194 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
194 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.344
lg avg .315 ▲+.029vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
xERA5.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.93vs his norm —
261 / 200 TBF
ERA5.27
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.17vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
56.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.8%vs his norm −7.5% ▼
261 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
261 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.340
lg avg .295 ▲+.045vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
194 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Chase %24.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
261 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.5 mphvs his norm —
979 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.2%→17.5%signal45 K — K% 14.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.7% → projected 17.5% over ~54 remaining IP.
xERA 5.03signal4.70 ERA — xERA 5.03 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 8.4% + contactsignal1.47 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.56 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop45 K ROS, 4.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.