MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler O'Neill
260 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tyler O'Neill

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.307); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

O'Neill is a hold — the contact is fine, the expected line is average.

His expected wOBA is .307, eight points below league average, and with 260 plate appearances that number is past the 160 it needs to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .302, so nothing broken is hiding in the gap — no bounce-driven slump waiting to reverse. The contact quality is ordinary rather than poor: 89.4 mph off the bat, a 42.8% hard-hit rate, and an 8.8% barrel rate, all a touch above league on enough batted balls to trust. What holds the profile down is the strikeout rate at 27.7%, well above league, and it comes with a 15% swinging-strike rate. He walks plenty at 10.4%, but the whiffs cap the upside. His expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which keeps this from turning into a buy. Hold. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is a fringe hold at best — a drop-tier drag, not a build-around.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.8%—−6.8% ▼vs his ~15.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.4 mph
89.4 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %42.8%
42.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm —
159 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.8%
norm8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm −6.8% ▼
159 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
260 / 160 PA
wOBA.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
260 / 200 PA
Strikeout %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
260 / 60 PA
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
260 / 120 PA
BABIP.262
norm.262*
lg avg .295 ▼−.033vs his norm −.015 ▼BABIP is below his ~.277 norm — expect it to rise.
159 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
15.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
260 / 50 PA
Chase %27.9%
27.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
260 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.8%→12.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.8% (signal) lifted to career ~15.6% → projected 12.6%.
BABIP 0.262→0.263 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.262 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.264 (xBA 0.214) → 0.263.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 36 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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