175 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tyler O'Neill
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.309); strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 6AVG .213R 18RBI 11SB 0
O'Neill is a hold — league average with a high-K floor.
ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 6 ROS, AVG .158 YTD → .213 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.6%—−6.0% ▼vs his ~15.6% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.309)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
104 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %44.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
104 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −6.0% ▼
104 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.309
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —
175 / 160 PA
wOBA.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
175 / 200 PA
Strikeout %28.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
175 / 60 PA
Walk %10.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
175 / 120 PA
BABIP.245
lg avg .295 ▼−.050vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.277 norm — expect it to rise.
104 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA
Chase %27.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
175 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.6%→13.5%signal6 HR — Barrel% 9.6% (signal) lifted to career ~15.6% → projected 13.5%.
BABIP 0.245→0.254 regressednoise.213 AVG — BABIP 0.245 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.256 (xBA 0.208) → 0.254.
on-base + lineup18 R — his run rate over ~153 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~153 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 36 G) over ~153 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.