week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Alex Hoppe
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.73); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 4WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0
Hoppe is a hold — league average with a 98-mph fastball.
ROS projects K 12 YTD → 4 ROS, WHIP 1.54 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.73)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA3.73
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.37vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA4.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
39 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.3 mphvs his norm —
656 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→24.3%signal4 K — K% 24.4% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.3% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.73noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.73 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.