MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Alex Hoppe
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Alex Hoppe

BAL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.03 sits 0.07 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.72
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0

Hoppe is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a live arm

His ERA is 4.43, but the arm underneath it is better than that number. The fastball is sitting at 98.4 mph against a league average of 94.0, and that velocity has been climbing across the sample. His expected ERA is 4.03, a hair below league, so the contact he allows points to a competent pitcher rather than the one the box score shows. The gap is BABIP-against: .322, 27 points above the league average of .295. That stat needs around 800 balls in play to settle and he has 122, so treat it as noise. He strikes out 24.5% of batters and holds hitters to a 4.1% barrel rate, well under league. The stuff is real; the surface number is not. Buy low. A 3.70 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the rest of the way make him a deep-league asset worth buying before the correction lands.

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.03 sits 0.07 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.3%
believable since Jun 1039.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
122 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.1%
4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
122 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.309
.309*
lg avg .315 ▼−.006vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
192 / 200 TBF
xERA4.03
4.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.07vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
192 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
4.43*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.5%
24.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
192 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
192 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.322
.322*
lg avg .295 ▲+.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
122 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
12.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.7%
26.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
192 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.4 mph
98.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.4 mphvs his norm —
733 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.5%→24.4%signal0 K — K% 24.5% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.03noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.03 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 10.4% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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