week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Alex Hoppe
data as of July 27, 2026·week 18
new call as of July 27, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.95 sits 0.15 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
Hoppe is a buy-low — ERA is noise, BABIP is the liar.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.95 sits 0.15 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.343 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
71 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
108 / 200 TBF
ERA6.38
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.28vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
24 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
108 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
108 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.343
lg avg .295 ▲+.048vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
71 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
108 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
108 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.7 mphvs his norm —
407 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.1%→24.1%signal16 K — K% 24.1% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 24.1% over ~17 remainin…
xERA 3.95noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.95 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 9.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.