Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryPete
8HR →19
52R ←51
45RBI →54
7SB ←3
.212AVG →.260
Current Season
ChristianCategoryPete
4HR →11
21R →34
18RBI →36
3SB ←2
.275AVG ←.237
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Pete Alonso
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.273 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Pete Alonso: 19 HR / 51 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).