MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Christian Yelich
447 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Christian Yelich

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.316); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSHR 1AVG .220R 7RBI 6SB 1

Yelich is a hold — league average, with a mild lean upward

His expected wOBA is .316, which is a single point above the league average of .315, and he has 447 plate appearances — well past the 160 it takes for that number to become reliable. His actual wOBA is .310, essentially the same, so nothing on the luck side is distorting the line. He is not a star and not a problem. His expected wOBA has been stepping up across the sample, and his hard-hit rate of 43.5% and barrel rate of 9.9% both sit a bit above league, so there is some contact quality underneath the average line. The strikeout rate is the drag: 26% with a swinging-strike rate of 13.2%, both above league. That caps the batting average without changing the skill level. Nothing to buy, nothing to sell. Hold. 1 HR / 7 R / 6 RBI / 1 SB / .220 AVG rest of way makes him a fringe hold at best — deep-league rotational counting only.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %9.9%+0.5%vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.316)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.2 mph
89.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.2 mphvs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %43.5%
43.5%*
lg avg 40.0% +3.5%vs his norm —
283 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.9%
normbelievable since May 269.9%*
lg avg 8.0% +1.9%vs his norm +0.5%
283 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.316
.316*
lg avg .315 +.001vs his norm —
447 / 160 PA
wOBA.310
.310*
lg avg .315 −.005vs his norm —
447 / 200 PA
Strikeout %26.0%
26.0%*
lg avg 22.0% +4.0%vs his norm —
447 / 60 PA
Walk %9.8%
9.8%*
lg avg 8.5% +1.3%vs his norm —
447 / 120 PA
BABIP.313
norm.313*
lg avg .295 +.018vs his norm −.026 BABIP is below his ~.340 normexpect it to rise.
283 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.2%
13.2%*
lg avg 11.0% +2.1%vs his norm —
447 / 50 PA
Chase %24.4%
24.4%*
lg avg 28.5% −4.1%vs his norm —
447 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.9%→9.7%signal1 HR — Barrel% 9.9% (signal) tempered to career ~9.4% → projected 9.7%.
BABIP 0.313→0.303 regressednoise.220 AVG — BABIP 0.313 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.298 (xBA 0.237) → 0.303.
on-base + lineup7 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.
slugging + lineup6 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (3 in 29 G) over ~39 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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