Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryYordan
8HR →24
53R →59
45RBI →59
8SB ←2
.210AVG →.307
Current Season
ChristianCategoryYordan
4HR →20
21R →39
18RBI →39
3SB ←1
.275AVG →.301
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Yordan Alvarez
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.492, +0.177 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Yordan Alvarez: 24 HR / 59 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).