Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryFreddie
8HR →15
53R ←44
45RBI →46
8SB ←3
.210AVG →.276
Current Season
ChristianCategoryFreddie
4HR →8
21R →29
18RBI →30
3SB ←2
.275AVG ←.266
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Freddie Freeman
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.376, +0.061 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Freddie Freeman: 15 HR / 44 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).