248 PA · week 10
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
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Freddie Freeman
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Freeman is a buy — elite contact, earned production.
His expected wOBA is .373, .058 above league average, and that number is stable after 248 plate appearances. His actual wOBA (.357) is nearly identical, so there is no luck story inflating his line. The foundation is elite contact quality: a 91.5 mph average exit velocity, a 46.3% hard-hit rate, and an 11.4% barrel rate — all well above league, all based on 175 batted balls (well past the 60 needed for stabilization). The hard-hit rate has been stepping up across the sample, reinforcing the trust. He also walks more (12.1%) and strikes out less (16.9%) than the typical hitter. The skill is real and the production matches. Buy.
Buy
med0.72
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.373, +0.058 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo91.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL175 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %46.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL175 / 50 BBE
Barrel %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL175 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.373
lg avg .315 ▲+.058trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 160 PA
wOBA.357
lg avg .315 ▲+.042trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 200 PA
Strikeout %16.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 60 PA
Walk %12.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 120 PA
BABIP.293
lg avg .295 ▼−.002too early to trust
NOISE175 / 800 BIP