MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Freddie Freeman
408 PA · week 17
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Freddie Freeman

LAD·1B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy stable xwOBA 0.383, +0.068 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.317 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.74
ROSAVG .280HR 6R 23RBI 24SB 2

Freeman is a buy — elite contact, earned production.

His expected wOBA is .383, .068 above league average, and that number is reliable at 408 plate appearances. His actual wOBA sits right there at .375, so the production is earned. Contact quality tells the same story: a 90.5 mph average exit velocity, a 45.1% hard-hit rate that has been stepping up, and a 10.6% barrel rate, all above league and all past their stabilization points. His BABIP is .317, a bit above league average of .295, but that is noise at 293 balls in play — expect some of that to regress, pulling the batting average down slightly. Even so, the core skill is elite: he also strikes out less than the league and walks more. The bat is real and the sample supports it. Buy. 6 HR, 23 R, 24 RBI, 2 SB, .280 AVG — a deep-league buy for rotational counting.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %10.6%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.383, +0.068 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.317 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.5 mph
90.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.5 mphvs his norm —
293 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %45.1%
45.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
293 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.6%
norm10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
293 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.383
.383*
lg avg .315 ▲+.068vs his norm —
408 / 160 PA
wOBA.375
.375*
lg avg .315 ▲+.060vs his norm —
408 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.9%
15.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm —
408 / 60 PA
Walk %11.5%
11.5%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
408 / 120 PA
BABIP.317
norm.317*
lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm −.024 ▼BABIP is below his ~.341 norm — expect it to rise.
293 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA
Chase %27.3%
27.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
408 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.6%→10.5%signal6 HR — Barrel% 10.6% (signal) tempered to career ~10.2% → projected 10.5%.
BABIP 0.317→0.320 regressednoise.280 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.322 (xBA 0.293) → 0.320.
on-base + lineup23 R — his run rate over ~198 projected PA.
slugging + lineup24 RBI — his RBI rate over ~198 projected PA.
run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (2 in 57 G) over ~198 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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