MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Freddie Freeman
600 PA · week 25
this weekBUY
last weekBUY

Freddie Freeman

LAD·1B
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Buy stable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.71
ROSHR 1AVG .279R 5RBI 5SB 0

Freeman is a buy — earned production, with a little BABIP giveback due.

His expected wOBA is .369, which is .054 above the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .362, so the production is earned, not inflated by luck. His contact quality is elite and getting better — 41.3% hard-hit rate and 8.2% barrels, with the hard-hit rate stepping up across the sample. He also controls the zone well: a 17% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate, both better than league average. His BABIP is .339 against a league average of .295, and that number is not reliable yet — 429 balls in play of the 800 needed — so some of his batting average will give back. That is the only caveat. The skill underneath is real and the sample is past the point where it becomes trustworthy. Buy. A 1 HR / 5 R / 5 RBI / .279 ROS line makes him a deep-league rotational asset — acquire the bat, not the name.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.2%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~10.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.369, +0.054 vs league — production is earned
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.339 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
89.5 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.3%
41.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
429 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
429 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.369
.369*
lg avg .315 ▲+.054vs his norm —
600 / 160 PA
wOBA.362
.362*
lg avg .315 ▲+.047vs his norm —
600 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.0%
17.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
600 / 60 PA
Walk %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 8.5% ▲+2.3%vs his norm —
600 / 120 PA
BABIP.339
norm.339*
lg avg .295 ▲+.044vs his norm −.002 ▼BABIP is below his ~.341 norm — expect it to rise.
429 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
11.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
600 / 50 PA
Chase %29.0%
29.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
600 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.2%→8.8%signal1 HR — Barrel% 8.2% (signal) lifted to career ~10.2% → projected 8.8%.
BABIP 0.339→0.331 regressednoise.279 AVG — BABIP 0.339 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.322 (xBA 0.293) → 0.331.
on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.
slugging + lineup5 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 57 G) over ~44 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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