657 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Freddie Freeman
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.363, +0.048 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality — BABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; add now.med 0.70 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Freeman is a buy — the on-base skill is earned, not luck.
Stable, above-average skill — but an elevated, unstable BABIP means some of the average will give back. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.1%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~10.2% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.363, +0.048 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.333 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.5 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.5 mphvs his norm —
470 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
470 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
470 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.363
lg avg .315 ▲+.048vs his norm —
657 / 160 PA
wOBA.348
lg avg .315 ▲+.033vs his norm —
657 / 200 PA
Strikeout %17.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
657 / 60 PA
Walk %10.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
657 / 120 PA
BABIP.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm −.008 ▼BABIP is below his ~.341 norm — expect it to rise.
470 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
657 / 50 PA
Chase %29.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
657 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.1%→8.7%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.1% (signal) lifted to career ~10.2% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.333→0.327 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.333 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.318 (xBA 0.290) → 0.327.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (2 in 57 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.