Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryJosh
8HR →10
52R ←31
45RBI ←37
7SB →18
.212AVG →.270
Current Season
ChristianCategoryJosh
4HR →6
21R21
18RBI →25
3SB →12
.275AVG ←.254
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.392 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.289 is 0.065 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 30% is stable and high — caps the floor
Josh Naylor
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.329)
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 52 R. Josh Naylor: 10 HR / 31 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).