389 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Josh Naylor
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.321); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .256HR 3R 17RBI 20SB 10
Naylor is a hold — league average, tracking up, but not yet above.
ROS projects HR 6 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .254 YTD → .256 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %4.9%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~7.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.321)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphvs his norm —
305 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
305 / 50 BBE
Barrel %4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
305 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.321
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
389 / 160 PA
wOBA.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —
389 / 200 PA
Strikeout %12.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.4%vs his norm —
389 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
389 / 120 PA
BABIP.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm −.027 ▼BABIP is below his ~.300 norm — expect it to rise.
305 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
389 / 50 PA
Chase %37.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
389 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 4.9%→6.0%signal3 HR — Barrel% 4.9% (signal) lifted to career ~7.7% → projected 6.0%.
BABIP 0.273→0.285 regressednoise.256 AVG — BABIP 0.273 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.292 (xBA 0.272) → 0.285.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~197 projected PA.
slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~197 projected PA.
run rate / role10 SB — his steal rate (12 in 57 G) over ~197 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.