Rest of Season Projection
ChristianCategoryMichael
8HR →16
53R ←39
45RBI →53
8SB ←2
.210AVG →.246
Current Season
ChristianCategoryMichael
4HR →6
21R →26
18RBI →35
3SB ←1
.275AVG ←.243
What Each Player's System Trusts
Christian Yelich
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.389 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaNOISEluck-free skill 0.292 is 0.064 below the surface — regression coming
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
Michael Busch
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.351, +0.036 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
Christian Yelich: 8 HR / 53 R. Michael Busch: 16 HR / 39 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).