710 PA · week 31
this weekBUY
last weekBUY
Michael Busch
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Buy stable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league, production is earned; elite, already-stable contact quality; add now.med 0.63 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Busch is a buy — the walks and contact are carrying a real bat
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.1%—−4.8% ▼vs his ~13.9% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.331, +0.016 vs league — production is earned
- hard_hit_pctSIGNALelite, already-stable contact quality
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
440 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
440 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm −4.8% ▼
440 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.331
lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —
710 / 160 PA
wOBA.333
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
710 / 200 PA
Strikeout %23.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
710 / 60 PA
Walk %13.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
710 / 120 PA
BABIP.298
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm −.003 ▼BABIP is below his ~.301 norm — expect it to rise.
440 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
710 / 50 PA
Chase %25.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
710 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.1%→10.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 9.1% (signal) lifted to career ~13.9% → projected 10.6%.
BABIP 0.298→0.286 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.298 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.272 (xBA 0.233) → 0.286.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (1 in 59 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.