MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Edmundo Sosa
162 PA · week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Edmundo Sosa

PHI·2B
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low contact quality already past its threshold and intact, the bat is fine — BABIP 0.241 suppressed and unstable, dragging results below the bat; buy the player, not the number.med 0.74
ROSHR 3AVG .262R 17RBI 25SB 3

Sosa is a buy-low — the bat is fine, the bounces aren't.

His hard-hit rate has stepped up across the sample and now sits at 40.7%, just above league average, and he has 118 batted balls — well past the 50 needed to trust contact quality. His expected wOBA of .340, 25 points above league average, is also reliable at 162 PA. The problem is his BABIP: .241, 54 points below league, on 118 balls in play of the 800 needed to stabilize. That gap is luck, not skill. His actual wOBA is .272, dragged down entirely by the suppressed BABIP. The contact is solid, the discipline is okay despite a high chase rate, and the cold line is noise. Buy low. 3 HR, 17 R, 25 RBI, 3 SB, .262 AVG—a deep-league only buy-low if the BABIP correction hits.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %7.6%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm

Drivers

  • babipNOISEBABIP 0.241 suppressed and unstable — dragging results below the bat
  • hard_hit_pctSIGNALcontact quality already past its threshold and intact — the bat is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.9 mph
87.9 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %40.7%
40.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
118 / 50 BBE
Barrel %7.6%
norm7.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
118 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.340
believable since Jul 13.340*
lg avg .315 ▲+.025vs his norm —
162 / 160 PA
wOBA.272
.272*
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.4%
20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
162 / 60 PA
Walk %3.1%
3.1%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
162 / 120 PA
BABIP.241
norm.241*
lg avg .295 ▼−.054vs his norm −.072 ▼BABIP is below his ~.313 norm — expect it to rise.
118 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
162 / 50 PA
Chase %53.6%
53.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+25.1%vs his norm —
162 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 7.6%→7.3%signal3 HR — Barrel% 7.6% (signal) tempered to career ~7.2% → projected 7.3%.
BABIP 0.241→0.328 regressednoise.262 AVG — BABIP 0.241 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.343 (xBA 0.287) → 0.328.
on-base + lineup17 R — his run rate over ~149 projected PA.
slugging + lineup25 RBI — his RBI rate over ~149 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (2 in 33 G) over ~149 projected PA.
rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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