week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jhoan Duran
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.14); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 26ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 9–18
Duran is a hold — elite peripherals, tiny sample.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %39.7%—+8.2% ▲vs his ~31.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.14)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
69 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm —
69 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.229
lg avg .315 ▼−.086vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA2.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.96vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA1.38
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.72vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %39.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+17.7%vs his norm +8.2% ▲
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −2.4% ▼Walk % is below his ~7.2% norm — expect it to rise.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.338
lg avg .295 ▲+.043vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
69 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.2 mphvs his norm —
515 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 39.7%→34.7%signal26 K — K% 39.7% (signal) tempered to career ~31.5% → projected 34.7% over ~20 remaining…
xERA 2.14noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.14 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 18 IP.
BB% 4.8% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 0.94 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)9-18 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard26 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.