Jhoan Duran
Duran is a buy — the stuff and the results both say so.
His expected ERA is 2.06, two full runs below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be trusted. There is no luck hiding in there — xERA is built to strip it out. His expected wOBA allowed is .222, well below the .315 league mark, and he is striking out 35.6% of batters with a 4.2% walk rate. That is a dominance profile, not a soft one. His barrel rate allowed is 3.6%, and the hard-hit rate he allows is below league too. Now the expected ERA is stepping down across the sample, not holding — the gap is getting deeper, not narrower. The stuff backs it: a 100.5 mph fastball, five and a half above league average. That is the level he is at. Buy. Lock in the 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP now — that's an asset worth the add before the market catches up.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %35.6%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~31.5% career norm
- Walk %4.2%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.06, 2.04 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
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