MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jhoan Duran
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Jhoan Duran

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.11, 1.99 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.11WHIP 1.03W 0–0SV 2–4

Duran is a buy — his xERA keeps stepping down, and the stuff backs it up

His expected ERA is 2.11, nearly two runs below the league average of 4.10, and that number has been stepping down across the sample — the direction matters as much as the level. The underpinnings say the run prevention is earned: he strikes out 34.1% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, walks only 4.3%, and gets swings and misses on 18.7% of pitches. He allows a .226 expected wOBA, 89 points below league, and his barrel rate allowed is 3.2% against a league average of 8.0%. His fastball is sitting at 100.4 mph and has been climbing. There is no luck story anywhere near this line. Buy. At 6 K, 2.11 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 2-4 SV rest of season, acquire now — this is a standard-league asset.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.3%—−2.9% ▼vs his ~7.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %34.1%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~31.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.11, 1.99 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.5%
believable since Jun 1440.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.2%
3.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.226
.226*
lg avg .315 ▼−.089vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
xERA2.11
2.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.99vs his norm —
211 / 200 TBF
ERA1.72
1.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.38vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
52.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.1%
norm34.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.1%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
211 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.3%
norm4.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −2.9% ▼
211 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.360
.360*
lg avg .295 ▲+.065vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.7%
18.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
211 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo100.4 mph
100.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+6.4 mphvs his norm —
830 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.1%→32.8%signal6 K — K% 34.1% (signal) tempered to career ~31.5% → projected 32.8% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.11signal2.11 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.11 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.3% + contactsignal1.03 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.03 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard15 SV, 2.11 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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