MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Cristopher Sánchez
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.81
ROSK 0ERA 3.39WHIP 1.26W 0–0SV 0

Sánchez is a buy — the strikeout profile backs the ERA

His expected ERA is 3.39, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The reason it holds up is the strikeout rate: 27% against a league average of 22%, with a 15.8% swinging-strike rate and a 36.3% chase rate — hitters swing at pitches off the plate and miss them. His walk rate of 5.3% sits well under the league's 8%, so the strikeouts come without free passes. His fastball is at 95.1 mph, above league average, and that velocity has been climbing across the sample while his expected ERA steps down. There is no suppressed BABIP-against holding this together; the swing-and-miss is the skill. Buy. Deep-league asset: 0 K / 3.39 ERA / 1.26 WHIP is a ratio-stabilizer worth acquiring now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %27.0%—+3.0% ▲vs his ~24.0% career norm
  • Walk %5.3%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~5.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.39, 0.71 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
42.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
574 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
574 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
.285*
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —
857 / 200 TBF
xERA3.39
3.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.71vs his norm —
857 / 200 TBF
ERA2.91
believable since Sep 212.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19vs his norm —
207 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.0%
norm27.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm +3.0% ▲
857 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.3%
norm5.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm −0.4% ▼
857 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.336
.336*
lg avg .295 ▲+.041vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
574 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
15.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
857 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
857 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.1 mph
95.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
3158 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.0%→26.4%signal0 K — K% 27.0% (signal) tempered to career ~24.0% → projected 26.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.39signal3.39 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.39 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 5.3% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.324 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.39 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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