MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jonathan Bowlan
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Jonathan Bowlan

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.85, 1.25 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.85WHIP 1.10W 0–0SV 0

Bowlan is a buy — 97 mph heat and a 2.85 expected ERA

His expected ERA is 2.85, a full 1.25 runs below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 229 batters — past the point where the number becomes reliable. That skill is not a one-week artifact: his expected ERA has been stepping down across the sample while his fastball has been stepping up, and it now sits at 97.1 mph against a 94.0 mph league average. He strikes out 31.9% of batters against 22.0% league, walks only 6.6%, and gets a 15.7% swinging-strike rate. At 229 batters faced, his allowed contact numbers are reliable too — .262 expected wOBA allowed is 53 points below league. Nothing in the profile depends on balls falling his way. Buy. A 2.85 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with zero saves still profiles as a ratios asset — acquire before the strikeout volume catches up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.9%—+7.8% ▲vs his ~24.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.85, 1.25 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.5%
believable since May 2736.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
137 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
137 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.262
.262*
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
xERA2.85
2.85*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.25vs his norm —
229 / 200 TBF
ERA3.35
3.35*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.75vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
56.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.9%
norm31.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm +7.8% ▲
229 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
229 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.271
.271*
lg avg .295 ▼−.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.7%
15.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
229 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
966 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.9%→28.3%signal0 K — K% 31.9% (signal) tempered to career ~24.1% → projected 28.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.85signal2.85 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.85 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.10 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.10 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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