week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Jonathan Bowlan
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.57); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 16ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–2SV 0
Bowlan is a hold — limited data, but early signs are solid.
ROS projects K 16 YTD → 16 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.7%—+5.6% ▲vs his ~24.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.57)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.0%vs his norm —
80 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
80 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.251
lg avg .315 ▼−.064vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 TBF
xERA2.57
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.53vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 200 TBF
ERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
31.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.7%vs his norm +5.6% ▲
128 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm −2.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.5% norm — expect it to rise.
128 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
80 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
128 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.3 mphvs his norm —
528 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.7%→26.3%signal16 K — K% 29.7% (signal) tempered to career ~24.1% → projected 26.3% over ~20 remaining…
xERA 2.57noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.57 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 17 IP.
BB% 6.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.14 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.