MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jonathan Bowlan
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekNO CALL

Jonathan Bowlan

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.76, 1.34 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 4ERA 2.76WHIP 1.10W 0–0SV 0

Bowlan is a buy — his skill is earned, not lucky

His expected ERA is 2.76, 1.34 runs below the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The strikeout rate backs it up: 31.6% of batters, well above the 22% league mark. He also gets hitters to chase at 35.2% and swing and miss at 15.5%, both with enough pitches to trust. The contact he allows is weak across the board — hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and xwOBA allowed all sit below league. His fastball has averaged 97.1 mph, and that velocity is stepping up across the season, while his expected ERA has stepped down. There is no luck inflating this line. Buy. Bank the 2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 4 K as a standard-league asset — acquire now before the market prices in this arm.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.6%—+7.5% ▲vs his ~24.1% career norm
  • Walk %6.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.76, 1.34 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
believable since May 2735.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
128 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
128 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.259
.259*
lg avg .315 ▼−.056vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
xERA2.76
2.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.34vs his norm —
212 / 200 TBF
ERA3.06
3.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
53 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.6%
norm31.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm +7.5% ▲
212 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
212 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.256
.256*
lg avg .295 ▼−.039vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
128 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
212 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
891 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.6%→28.0%signal4 K — K% 31.6% (signal) tempered to career ~24.1% → projected 28.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.76signal2.76 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.76 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.10 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.10 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard2.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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