Is Alec Bohm a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Alec Bohm's rest-of-season outlook?

Barrel rate 5.2% craters a league-average exit velo.

378 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Alec Bohm

PHI·3B

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

Sell stable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.59

ROSHR 3AVG .217R 14RBI 20SB 0

Bohm is a sell — below-average skill, no luck excuse.

His expected wOBA is .297, 18 points below league average, and the sample is large enough to trust — nearly 400 plate appearances. His actual wOBA is even lower at .277, so the surface isn't dragging the skill down; the skill itself is the problem. The contact quality metrics are mixed: exit velocity and hard-hit rate are near league average, but barrel rate is well below at 5.2% against an 8.0% league average, so power is lacking. His strikeout rate is a tidy 15.1%, well below league, and his chase rate is low, but those discipline advantages don't translate into damage. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, confirming the trajectory. This is simply a league-average or below bat right now, with no luck story to cushion the fall. Sell. His 3 HR / 14 R / 20 RBI / 0 SB / .217 AVG projection makes him a streaming-only bat in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

Barrel %5.2%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~6.2% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —

290 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %41.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —

290 / 50 BBE

Barrel %5.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

290 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.297

lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —

378 / 160 PA

wOBA.277

lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —

378 / 200 PA

Strikeout %15.1%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —

378 / 60 PA

Walk %6.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

378 / 120 PA

BABIP.222

lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm −.085 ▼BABIP is below his ~.307 norm — expect it to rise.

290 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %8.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

378 / 50 PA

Chase %25.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

378 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 5.2%→5.6%signal3 HR — Barrel% 5.2% (signal) lifted to career ~6.2% → projected 5.6%.

BABIP 0.222→0.240 regressednoise.217 AVG — BABIP 0.222 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.251 (xBA 0.239) → 0.240.

on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~188 projected PA.

slugging + lineup20 RBI — his RBI rate over ~188 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 55 G) over ~188 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons