Is Luis Arraez a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Luis Arraez's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

655 PA · week 31

this weekHOLD

last weekSELL-HIGH

Luis Arraez

PHI·2B

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026

Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.307); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Arraez is a hold — league-average line, no luck to unwind.

His expected wOBA is .307, eight points under the league average of .315, and the sample is well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .331, so he has banked a little good fortune on balls in play, but not a gap that screams regression. The striking thing is how he gets there. His average exit velocity is 86.4 mph against a 89.0 league average, his hard-hit rate is 19.4% against 40.0%, and his barrel rate is 1.2% against 8.0%. He does not miss, though: a 4.3% strikeout rate and a 3.5% swinging-strike rate, both far below league. The expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample, which says the contact-driven value is softening rather than climbing. Nothing here is unstable enough to force a move in either direction. Hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %1.2%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~2.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.307)

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.4 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —

588 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %19.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−20.6%vs his norm —

588 / 50 BBE

Barrel %1.2%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm −0.8% ▼

588 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.307

lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —

655 / 160 PA

wOBA.331

lg avg .315 ▲+.016vs his norm —

655 / 200 PA

Strikeout %4.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−17.7%vs his norm —

655 / 60 PA

Walk %5.2%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —

655 / 120 PA

BABIP.311

lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm −.013 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.

588 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %3.5%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm —

655 / 50 PA

Chase %33.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —

655 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 1.2%→1.4%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.2% (signal) lifted to career ~2.0% → projected 1.4%.

BABIP 0.311→0.306 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.293 (xBA 0.289) → 0.306.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 57 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons