248 PA · week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Luis Arraez
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Arraez is a sell-high — BABIP is doing the heavy lifting.
His actual wOBA is .343, but his expected wOBA is .310 — a gap of .033 that points squarely at regression. The culprit is his BABIP: .321 against a league average of .295, and BABIP needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has 221 — not enough to trust. His contact quality is below average across the board: 87.6 mph exit velocity, 21.3% hard-hit rate, and 0.0% barrels. The strikeout rate is elite at 3.6%, which keeps the floor high, but it cannot sustain a .340 wOBA with this little damage. The xwOBA has been stepping down through the sample, confirming the trend. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.73
Drivers
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.321 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.310 is 0.033 below the surface — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.6 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.4 mphtrustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL221 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %21.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−18.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL221 / 50 BBE
Barrel %0.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−8.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL221 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.310
lg avg .315 ▼−.005trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 160 PA
wOBA.343
lg avg .315 ▲+.028trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 200 PA
Strikeout %3.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−18.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL248 / 120 PA
BABIP.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026too early to trust
NOISE221 / 800 BIP