Is Luis Arraez a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Luis Arraez's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

595 PA · week 25

this weekHOLD

last weekSELL-HIGH

Luis Arraez

PHI·2B

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026

Hold · leans sell skill near league average (0.305) — BABIP 0.317 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60

ROSAVG .298HR 0R 5RBI 4SB 1

Arraez is a hold — near average, with one loose thread.

His expected wOBA is .305, ten points under the league average of .315, and 595 plate appearances is well past where that number becomes reliable. The reason it sits below league is contact quality: 86.3 mph average exit velocity, a 19.0% hard-hit rate, and 1.1% barrels, all far under league, on 536 batted balls. This is a player who puts the bat on everything — a 4.4% strikeout rate, a 3.8% swinging-strike rate — but does not drive the ball. His actual wOBA of .335 is helped by a .317 BABIP against a league mark of .295, and 536 balls in play is short of the roughly 800 needed for BABIP to be reliable, so expect some of that average to pull back. His expected wOBA has been drifting down across the sample. Nothing here is unstable enough to act on in either direction. Hold. 0 HR / 5 R / 4 RBI / 1 SB is empty-category filler; the .298 AVG is the asset, and deep-league-only holds still need it.

VS His Norm

Barrel %1.1%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~2.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.305)
babipNOISEBABIP 0.317 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —

536 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %19.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−21.0%vs his norm —

536 / 50 BBE

Barrel %1.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm −0.9% ▼

536 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.305

lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —

595 / 160 PA

wOBA.335

lg avg .315 ▲+.020vs his norm —

595 / 200 PA

Strikeout %4.4%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−17.6%vs his norm —

595 / 60 PA

Walk %4.7%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —

595 / 120 PA

BABIP.317

lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm −.007 ▼BABIP is below his ~.324 norm — expect it to rise.

536 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %3.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm —

595 / 50 PA

Chase %34.1%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —

595 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 1.1%→1.3%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.1% (signal) lifted to career ~2.0% → projected 1.3%.

BABIP 0.317→0.309 regressednoise.298 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.292 (xBA 0.288) → 0.309.

on-base + lineup5 R — his run rate over ~44 projected PA.

slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~44 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (5 in 57 G) over ~44 projected PA.

rosterdeep.298 AVG

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons