Rest of Season Projection
LuisCategoryNico
2HR2
42R ←33
33RBI →45
7SB →15
.299AVG ←.271
Current Season
LuisCategoryNico
2HR →4
29R ←24
23RBI →33
5SB →11
.321AVG ←.252
What Each Player's System Trusts
Luis Arraez
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.326 far above league and nowhere near stable — inflating the line
- xwobaSIGNALluck-free skill 0.310 is 0.037 below the surface — regression coming
Nico Hoerner
- xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.336)
Luis Arraez: 2 HR / 42 R. Nico Hoerner: 2 HR / 33 R. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).