Is Derek Hill a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Derek Hill's rest-of-season outlook?

31.9% strikeouts with 88.9 mph exit velo can't hold

216 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Derek Hill

PHI·CF

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.289 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 32% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.60

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Hill is a sell — the contact is weak and the strikeouts cap him.

His expected wOBA is .289 against a league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be trusted. His actual wOBA is .319, so the line is not being dragged down by bad luck — if anything, the results are running ahead of the skill. The contact quality is not there: a 33.8% hard-hit rate against a league average of 40.0%, on 133 batted balls, which is a large enough sample to believe. He strikes out 31.9% of the time and that rate has been climbing across the sample, which leaves him no floor when the balls in play stop falling. That is the shape of a player whose real level is below his surface line. Sell. Fade the surface line before it collapses — 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is a drop, nothing more than waiver filler.

VS His Norm

Barrel %10.5%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.289 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 32% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.9 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —

133 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.8%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —

133 / 50 BBE

Barrel %10.5%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm +1.1% ▲

133 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.289

lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —

216 / 160 PA

wOBA.319

lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —

216 / 200 PA

Strikeout %31.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —

216 / 60 PA

Walk %6.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —

216 / 120 PA

BABIP.311

lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm +.003 ▲BABIP is above his ~.308 norm — expect it to fall.

133 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %17.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —

216 / 50 PA

Chase %34.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.1%vs his norm —

216 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 10.5%→9.8%signal0 HR — Barrel% 10.5% (signal) tempered to career ~9.4% → projected 9.8%.

BABIP 0.311→0.275 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.311 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.268 (xBA 0.225) → 0.275.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (6 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons