145 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Derek Hill
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 36% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.298); BABIP 0.370 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .219R 16RBI 11SB 11
Hill is a hold — league average with a K-rate problem.
ROS projects HR 3 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .234 YTD → .219 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.8%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~9.4% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.298)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 36% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.370 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.4 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.4 mphvs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
83 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
83 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.298
lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
145 / 160 PA
wOBA.327
lg avg .315 ▲+.012vs his norm —wOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
145 / 200 PA
Strikeout %35.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.9%vs his norm —
145 / 60 PA
Walk %6.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
145 / 120 PA
BABIP.370
lg avg .295 ▲+.075vs his norm +.061 ▲BABIP is above his ~.308 norm — expect it to fall.
83 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.0%vs his norm —
145 / 50 PA
Chase %34.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
145 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.8%→9.8%signal3 HR — Barrel% 10.8% (signal) tempered to career ~9.4% → projected 9.8%.
BABIP 0.370→0.294 regressednoise.219 AVG — BABIP 0.370 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.286 (xBA 0.237) → 0.294.
on-base + lineup16 R — his run rate over ~130 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~130 projected PA.
run rate / role11 SB — his steal rate (6 in 43 G) over ~130 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.