Is Derek Hill a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Derek Hill's rest-of-season outlook?

33% strikeout rate with a .287 xwOBA

203 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Derek Hill

PHI·CF

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.61

ROSHR 1AVG .201R 4RBI 2SB 2

Hill is a sell — the contact is short and the strikeouts keep climbing.

His expected wOBA is .287, .028 below the league average of .315, and he has 203 plate appearances — past the 160 where that number becomes reliable. His actual wOBA is .319, slightly above league, but that gap is the surface running ahead of the skill, not a sign the bat is better than the underlying contact. His hard-hit rate is 33.3% against a league average of 40.0%, and his average exit velocity of 88.7 mph sits below league — the batted-ball foundation is below average. The strikeout rate makes it worse: 33.0% against a league average of 22.0%, stable, and the trajectory is stepping up across the sample, not down. His expected wOBA has been stepping down too, so the direction is wrong. There is no unlucky BABIP to pin this on. Sell. 1 HR / 4 R / 2 RBI / 2 SB / .201 AVG is a deep-league waiver streamer at best — drop, not a hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %9.8%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~9.4% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.287 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —

123 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.3%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —

123 / 50 BBE

Barrel %9.8%

lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +0.4% ▲

123 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.287

lg avg .315 ▼−.028vs his norm —

203 / 160 PA

wOBA.319

lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —

203 / 200 PA

Strikeout %33.0%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.0%vs his norm —

203 / 60 PA

Walk %5.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

203 / 120 PA

BABIP.327

lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm +.018 ▲BABIP is above his ~.308 norm — expect it to fall.

123 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %17.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —

203 / 50 PA

Chase %34.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.3%vs his norm —

203 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 9.8%→9.5%signal1 HR — Barrel% 9.8% (signal) tempered to career ~9.4% → projected 9.5%.

BABIP 0.327→0.278 regressednoise.201 AVG — BABIP 0.327 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.226) → 0.278.

on-base + lineup4 R — his run rate over ~29 projected PA.

slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~29 projected PA.

run rate / role2 SB — his steal rate (6 in 43 G) over ~29 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons