week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Orion Kerkering
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.222 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.91 is 0.48 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.med 0.74 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 22ERA 3.69WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 0–2
Kerkering is a sell-high — his ERA is held up by BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.9%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~26.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.222 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.91 is 0.48 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed24.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−15.5%vs his norm —
94 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
94 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
158 / 200 TBF
xERA2.91
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.19vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
158 / 200 TBF
ERA2.43
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.67vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
37 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
158 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +4.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.6% norm — expect it to fall.
158 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.222
lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
94 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
158 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
158 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.5 mphvs his norm —
654 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.9%→26.4%signal22 K — K% 25.9% (signal) lifted to career ~26.8% → projected 26.4% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 2.91noise3.69 ERA — xERA 2.91 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 12.7% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 1…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.69 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.