95 PA · week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Rafael Marchán
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.202); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Marchán is a hold — limited data, no edge in either direction.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .094 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.6%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~4.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.202)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo82.9 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−6.1 mphvs his norm —
76 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %18.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−21.6%vs his norm —
76 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
76 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.202
lg avg .315 ▼−.113vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 160 PA
wOBA.139
lg avg .315 ▼−.176vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
95 / 60 PA
Walk %2.1%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.4%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
95 / 120 PA
BABIP.095
lg avg .295 ▼−.200vs his norm −.157 ▼BABIP is below his ~.252 norm — expect it to rise.
76 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
Chase %33.3%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
95 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.6%→4.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.6% (signal) lifted to career ~4.5% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.095→0.217 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.095 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.176) → 0.217.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.