89 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Rafael Marchán
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.212); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .183R 6RBI 9SB 0
Marchán is a hold — league average, limited data.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .094 YTD → .183 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.8%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~4.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.212)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.8 mphvs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %19.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−20.3%vs his norm —
71 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
71 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.212
lg avg .315 ▼−.103vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 160 PA
wOBA.148
lg avg .315 ▼−.167vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
89 / 60 PA
Walk %2.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 120 PA
BABIP.101
lg avg .295 ▼−.194vs his norm −.151 ▼BABIP is below his ~.252 norm — expect it to rise.
71 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
Chase %32.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.8%→4.0%signal2 HR — Barrel% 2.8% (signal) lifted to career ~4.5% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.101→0.219 regressednoise.183 AVG — BABIP 0.101 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.185) → 0.219.
on-base + lineup6 R — his run rate over ~145 projected PA.
slugging + lineup9 RBI — his RBI rate over ~145 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~145 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.