92 PA · week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Rafael Marchán
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (0.208); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .180R 2RBI 2SB 0
Marchán is a hold — weak contact but nothing unstable driving the line.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .094 YTD → .180 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %2.7%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~4.5% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.208)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo83.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−5.8 mphvs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %18.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−21.1%vs his norm —
74 / 50 BBE
Barrel %2.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
74 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.208
lg avg .315 ▼−.107vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 160 PA
wOBA.143
lg avg .315 ▼−.172vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 200 PA
Strikeout %15.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —
92 / 60 PA
Walk %2.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
92 / 120 PA
BABIP.097
lg avg .295 ▼−.198vs his norm −.155 ▼BABIP is below his ~.252 norm — expect it to rise.
74 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —
92 / 50 PA
Chase %32.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
92 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 2.7%→4.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.7% (signal) lifted to career ~4.5% → projected 4.0%.
BABIP 0.097→0.218 regressednoise.180 AVG — BABIP 0.097 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.181) → 0.218.
on-base + lineup2 R — his run rate over ~34 projected PA.
slugging + lineup2 RBI — his RBI rate over ~34 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 21 G) over ~34 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.