MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Banks
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Tanner Banks

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
flipped from BUY-LOW
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.409 elevated and unstable, the 7.14 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.41 is +0.31 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 6ERA 3.71WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Banks is a hold — the ERA overstates real damage.

His ERA is 7.14, and that number is telling a worse story than his pitching does. His BABIP-against is .409, 114 points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 101, so that gap is luck and the ugly ERA overstates the damage. The problem is what sits underneath: his expected ERA is 4.41, .31 above the league average of 4.1, and that is the level the surface number regresses toward — below average, not a buy. His strikeout rate is 21.9%, right at league, and his fastball averages 92.0 mph, two below league. There is no panicked sell here and no edge on the other side. Hold. 6 K and 1.24 WHIP is deep-league only; hold the status quo, not an asset worth chasing.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.9%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.409 elevated and unstable — the 7.14 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.41 is +0.31 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
4.41*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
ERA7.14
7.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.9%
norm21.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
146 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.1% norm — expect it to fall.
146 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.409
.409*
lg avg .295 ▲+.114vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
92.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.9%→22.4%signal6 K — K% 21.9% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 22.4% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 4.41noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.41 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.309 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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