MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tanner Banks
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

Tanner Banks

PHI·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from BUY-LOW
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.409 elevated and unstable, the 7.14 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.36 is +0.26 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55
ROSK 25ERA 3.71WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Banks is a hold — the ERA is a mirage, but the skill is not a buy.

His 7.14 ERA looks alarming, but it is inflated by a .409 BABIP-against that needs 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has only 101. Strip that luck out and his expected ERA is 4.36, still 0.26 above league average. His contact suppression is solid — hard-hit rate allowed is 33.7% (6.3 points below league) and barrel rate 6.9% (1.1 points below) — and both have cleared the 50-BBE stabilization threshold. His strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are at league average, so the stuff is not special. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. The ERA is lying, but the truth is a below-average pitcher. There is no edge either way. Hold. 25 K / 3.71 ERA / 1.24 WHIP is a deep-league hold; the luck-adjusted skills are below average, so you can safely stay put.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.9%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~22.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.409 elevated and unstable — the 7.14 ERA overstates the damage
  • xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.36 is +0.26 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.323
.323*
lg avg .315 ▲+.008vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
xERA4.36
4.36*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.26vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
ERA7.14
7.14*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+3.04vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
29 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.9%
norm21.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
146 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
norm8.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm +1.8% ▲Walk % is above his ~7.1% norm — expect it to fall.
146 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.409
.409*
lg avg .295 ▲+.114vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.7%
31.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.0 mph
92.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.0 mphvs his norm —
551 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.9%→22.4%signal25 K — K% 21.9% (signal) lifted to career ~22.8% → projected 22.4% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 4.36noise3.71 ERA — xERA 4.36 (noise) blended 1% skill / 99% league 3.70 at 21 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.309 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 1%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.71 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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