week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Alex McFarlane
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.63 is 0.79 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.87 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0
McFarlane is a sell-high — the ERA is running ahead of the stuff
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.63 is 0.79 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
52 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.294
lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 200 TBF
xERA3.63
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.47vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
79 / 200 TBF
ERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
19 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
79 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Walk % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
79 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
52 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.2%vs his norm —
79 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.4 mphvs his norm —
312 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.3%→25.0%signal0 K — K% 25.3% (signal) tempered to RP mean ~24.0% → projected 25.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.63noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.63 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 1 IP.
BB% 8.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.