103 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Colby Thomas
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.261); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 4AVG .198R 14RBI 14SB 0
Thomas is a hold — league-average contact, high K's cap the ceiling.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 4 ROS, AVG .268 YTD → .198 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %10.1%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~13.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.261)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.7 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.7 mphvs his norm —
69 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %36.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
69 / 50 BBE
Barrel %10.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
69 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.261
lg avg .315 ▼−.054vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 160 PA
wOBA.258
lg avg .315 ▼−.057vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
103 / 60 PA
Walk %3.9%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
103 / 120 PA
BABIP.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045vs his norm −.059 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
69 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA
Chase %42.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.2%vs his norm —
103 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 10.1%→12.5%signal4 HR — Barrel% 10.1% (signal) lifted to career ~13.3% → projected 12.5%.
BABIP 0.250→0.232 regressednoise.198 AVG — BABIP 0.250 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.189) → 0.232.
on-base + lineup14 R — his run rate over ~128 projected PA.
slugging + lineup14 RBI — his RBI rate over ~128 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 19 G) over ~128 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.