121 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Colby Thomas
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
new call as of September 30, 2026
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.248); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0
Thomas is a hold — average skill, strikeouts cap the floor.
ROS projects HR 1 YTD → 0 ROS, AVG .268 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %8.9%—−4.4% ▼vs his ~13.3% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.248)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+0.1 mphvs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %34.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —
79 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −4.4% ▼
79 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.248
lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 160 PA
wOBA.250
lg avg .315 ▼−.065vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
121 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
121 / 60 PA
Walk %3.3%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
121 / 120 PA
BABIP.260
lg avg .295 ▼−.035vs his norm −.049 ▼BABIP is below his ~.309 norm — expect it to rise.
79 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %20.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+9.8%vs his norm —
121 / 50 PA
Chase %42.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+14.4%vs his norm —
121 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.9%→12.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (signal) lifted to career ~13.3% → projected 12.1%.
BABIP 0.260→0.233 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.260 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.182) → 0.233.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 19 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.