MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Brooks Raley
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Brooks Raley

NYM·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High BABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 3.64 is 1.62 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 25ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 0

Raley is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP-fueled luck.

His ERA sits at 2.02, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The gap between his actual ERA and expected ERA is 1.62 runs, driven primarily by a suppressed BABIP-against of .272. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has only 96, so that luck will regress. The skill metrics are solid — his hard-hit rate allowed (32.3%) and barrel rate allowed (5.2%) are both well below league average, and his strikeout rate (24.7%) is above average — but those feed a true skill level around a 3.64 xERA. Limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. The surface ERA is not sustainable. Sell high. With a 25 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 0 SV projection, sell now before regression turns this deep-league asset into a drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.7%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.272 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.64 is 1.62 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.3%
32.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.7%vs his norm —
96 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
believable since Jun 45.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
96 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
xERA3.64
3.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
150 / 200 TBF
ERA2.02
2.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
35.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
norm24.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
150 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.3%
norm9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm +0.5% ▲Walk % is above his ~8.8% norm — expect it to fall.
150 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.272
.272*
lg avg .295 ▼−.023vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
96 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Chase %30.3%
30.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.8%vs his norm —
150 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.1 mph
90.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.9 mphvs his norm —
563 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→25.8%signal25 K — K% 24.7% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 25.8% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 3.64noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.64 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 22 IP.
BB% 9.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 2%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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