week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Brooks Raley
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.67 is 1.36 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.67WHIP 1.27W 0–0SV 0
Raley is a sell-high — his 2.31 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.6%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
- Walk %8.2%—−0.6% ▼vs his ~8.8% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.258 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.67 is 1.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —
139 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
139 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
208 / 200 TBF
xERA3.67
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.43vs his norm —
208 / 200 TBF
ERA2.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.79vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
50.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
208 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −0.6% ▼
208 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.258
lg avg .295 ▼−.037vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
139 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.0%
lg avg 11.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
208 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.2%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
208 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo90.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−3.7 mphvs his norm —
773 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→25.1%signal6 K — K% 23.6% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 25.1% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.67signal3.67 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.67 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.27 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0 SV — role: setup, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.67 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.