Is Justin Crawford a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Justin Crawford's rest-of-season outlook?

1.3% barrels at 87 mph — contact can't carry a .293 wOBA

416 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Justin Crawford

PHI·CF

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

Sell stable xwOBA 0.281 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.62

ROSAVG .248HR 0R 3RBI 3SB 1

Crawford is a sell — the bat is below league and no luck is hiding it.

His expected wOBA is .281, which is .034 below the league average of .315, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .293, so the gap to league is not a bad-luck story — the line is tracking the skill, and the skill is below average. His contact quality backs that up: 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 36.2% hard-hit rate, and a 1.3% barrel rate, all below league at a sample well past the point where these numbers stabilize. His xwOBA has been stepping down across his sample, not up. He does not strike out much, but he does not hit the ball hard either. The skill is the line, and the line is what it is. Sell. 0 HR / 3 R / 3 RBI / 1 SB / .248 AVG is a waiver-level drag — drop, deep-league streamer only.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.281 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

315 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %36.2%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —

315 / 50 BBE

Barrel %1.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.7%vs his norm —

315 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.281

lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —

416 / 160 PA

wOBA.293

lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —

416 / 200 PA

Strikeout %17.5%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm —

416 / 60 PA

Walk %6.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —

416 / 120 PA

BABIP.318

lg avg .295 ▲+.023vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

315 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.8%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —

416 / 50 PA

Chase %37.5%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.0%vs his norm —

416 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 1.3%→2.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.3% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 2.6%.

BABIP 0.318→0.310 regressednoise.248 AVG — BABIP 0.318 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.304 (xBA 0.254) → 0.310.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~39 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~39 projected PA.

run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (7 in 53 G) over ~39 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons