Is Justin Crawford a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Justin Crawford's rest-of-season outlook?

2% barrels and 87 mph exit velo won't carry .284 xwOBA

465 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Justin Crawford

PHI·CF

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Crawford is a sell — the contact is too light to carry the line.

He is averaging 87.1 mph off the bat, two mph below league, and his hard-hit rate of 35.1% is five points under the league's 40%. With 353 batted balls, that sample is long past the point where contact quality becomes reliable. The barrel rate tells the same story at 2.0% against a league average of 8.0%. His expected wOBA is .284, .031 below league average, and his actual wOBA of .294 is close enough that no bad-luck story is propping the line up. What he does well is avoid strikeouts — 17.6% against 22.0% league — but a low strikeout rate with weak contact just means more outs on balls in play, and his expected wOBA has been stepping down across the sample. There is no correction coming. Sell. There's no counting floor to salvage: 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG. A drop, not a hold.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.284 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.9 mphvs his norm —

353 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —

353 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.0%vs his norm —

353 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.284

lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —

465 / 160 PA

wOBA.294

lg avg .315 ▼−.021vs his norm —

465 / 200 PA

Strikeout %17.6%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm —

465 / 60 PA

Walk %5.8%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

465 / 120 PA

BABIP.317

lg avg .295 ▲+.022vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

353 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.4%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —

465 / 50 PA

Chase %37.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.1%vs his norm —

465 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.0%→3.2%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.0% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 3.2%.

BABIP 0.317→0.312 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.317 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.257) → 0.312.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (7 in 53 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons