Is Justin Crawford a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Justin Crawford's rest-of-season outlook?

0.9% barrel rate — pop simply isn't there.

290 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Justin Crawford

PHI·CF

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

Sell stable xwOBA 0.278 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.62

ROSHR 1AVG .250R 13RBI 11SB 7

Crawford is a sell — his bat is below league and stable.

His expected wOBA is .278, 37 points below league average, and the sample of 290 plate appearances is well past the stabilization point. His actual wOBA is .293, slightly higher but still below league — so there is no bad-luck story masking a better hitter. The underlying contact quality is the problem: average exit velocity of 86.7 mph is below league, hard-hit rate is 33.5% versus 40.0% league, and his barrel rate is 0.9% against an 8.0% league average — all well past their stabilization thresholds. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the season, so the trend is not promising. There is no luck to regress and no skill to break out. This is what he is. Sell. 1 HR, 13 R, 11 RBI, 7 SB, .250 AVG leave him a deep-league only streaming option.

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.278 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.7 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−2.3 mphvs his norm —

212 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.5%vs his norm —

212 / 50 BBE

Barrel %0.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —

212 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.278

lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —

290 / 160 PA

wOBA.293

lg avg .315 ▼−.022vs his norm —

290 / 200 PA

Strikeout %20.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —

290 / 60 PA

Walk %5.9%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —

290 / 120 PA

BABIP.327

lg avg .295 ▲+.032vs his norm —BABIP is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.

212 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.3%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —

290 / 50 PA

Chase %38.8%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.3%vs his norm —

290 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 0.9%→2.3%signal1 HR — Barrel% 0.9% (signal) lifted to league ~8.0% → projected 2.3%.

BABIP 0.327→0.310 regressednoise.250 AVG — BABIP 0.327 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.304 (xBA 0.254) → 0.310.

on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~174 projected PA.

slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~174 projected PA.

run rate / role7 SB — his steal rate (7 in 53 G) over ~174 projected PA.

rosterdeeprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons