MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Mayza
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tim Mayza

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.79
ROSK 0ERA 3.47WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Mayza is a buy — the expected ERA is earned and falling

His expected ERA is 3.47, .63 below the league average of 4.10, and 271 batters faced clears the threshold where that number becomes reliable. Nothing on his line depends on luck: his expected wOBA allowed is .288, 27 points below league average, and his walk rate of 6.6% sits below the 8.0% league mark. The trajectory reinforces the level — his xERA is stepping down across the sample while his fastball velo is stepping up, now 94.4 mph against a 94.0 league average. The one soft spot is hard-hit contact allowed at 45.2%, five points above league, though his barrel rate of 6.4% actually runs below the 8.0% norm. He is not blowing hitters away at a 23.6% strikeout rate; he is simply limiting damage. The skill is real and the sample is large enough to say so. Buy. Deep-league asset: the 3.47 ERA and 1.24 WHIP hold as volume-backed ratios, so add him now.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.6%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %23.6%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.47, 0.63 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
45.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
188 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.4%
6.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.6%vs his norm —
188 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.288
believable since Aug 3.288*
lg avg .315 ▼−.027vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
xERA3.47
3.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.63vs his norm —
271 / 200 TBF
ERA3.48
3.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
67.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.6%
norm23.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
271 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
271 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
188 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.0%
27.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
271 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
94.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1085 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.6%→23.7%signal0 K — K% 23.6% (signal) held to career ~23.7% → projected 23.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.47signal3.47 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.47 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.47 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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