MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tim Mayza
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Tim Mayza

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.32, 0.78 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.83
ROSK 5ERA 3.32WHIP 1.20W 0–0SV 0

Mayza is a buy — earned run prevention, no luck involved

His expected ERA is 3.32, 0.78 below the league average of 4.10, and his sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. He is not getting help from the bounces — his xwOBA allowed of .283 is 32 points better than league average and his BABIP-against is nowhere propping up the line. His fastball velocity has stepped up across the sample, now at 94.6 mph against a league average of 94.0, and the strikeout rate of 24.2% sits above league while his walk rate of 6.1% sits below it. The contact he allows is not soft, but it is not loud either — the expected ERA is the story, and it has been stepping down. Buy. A deep-league asset: 5 K, 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP with no saves means ratios help now while the role grows.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.1%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
  • Strikeout %24.2%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.32, 0.78 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.4%
44.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.5%
6.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.283
believable since Aug 3.283*
lg avg .315 ▼−.032vs his norm —
244 / 200 TBF
xERA3.32
3.32*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —
244 / 200 TBF
ERA3.23
3.23*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.87vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.2%
norm24.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.2%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
244 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
norm6.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
244 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
.273*
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
10.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
244 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.8%
27.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
244 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.6 mph
94.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.6 mphvs his norm —
979 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.2%→24.0%signal5 K — K% 24.2% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 24.0% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.32signal3.32 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.32 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.1% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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