week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Tim Mayza
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.33); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21WHIP 1.24ERA 3.68W 0–1SV 0
Mayza is a hold — league average across the board.
ROS projects K 26 YTD → 21 ROS, WHIP 0.99 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %5.8%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~7.6% career norm
- Strikeout %24.9%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~23.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.33)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed44.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
119 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
119 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.285
lg avg .315 ▼−.030vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 200 TBF
xERA3.33
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.77vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
173 / 200 TBF
ERA3.59
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.51vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
42.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
173 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
173 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.283
lg avg .295 ▼−.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
119 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
173 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
173 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.9 mphvs his norm —
690 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.9%→24.3%signal21 K — K% 24.9% (signal) tempered to career ~23.7% → projected 24.3% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 3.33noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.33 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 27 IP.
BB% 5.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.68 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.