Caleb Kilian
Kilian is a buy — the strikeouts and the fastball are both real.
His expected ERA is 3.57, more than half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The velocity behind it is climbing: 96.8 mph on the fastball, nearly three ticks above league, and holding as the sample grows. That heat shows up in the strikeouts, 26.8% of batters against a 22% league rate, and in a 13.6% swinging-strike rate. He is getting hitters to chase 32.7% of the time, well above league, so the whiffs aren't an accident. The one crack is the walks, 10.5% against 8%, and that rate has cleared its stabilization point. The contact he allows is soft enough — 34.9% hard-hit against a 40% league mark — that the expected ERA keeps falling. The stuff is carrying this. Buy. Deep-league asset: 3.57 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with zero saves is a streamer's line, but the stuff says stash him now.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.8%—+6.4% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm
- Walk %10.5%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~13.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.57, 0.53 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.