MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Caleb Kilian
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Caleb Kilian

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy stable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.77
ROSK 5ERA 3.54WHIP 1.32W 0–1SV 0–1

Kilian is a buy — the stuff is real and the sample backs it

His expected ERA is 3.54, more than half a run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact allowed backs it up: a .292 expected wOBA against, 34.9% hard-hit allowed versus a 40% league average, and a strikeout rate of 26.8% that sits nearly five points above league. The fastball is averaging 96.8 mph, well above the 94.0 league mark, and it has been stepping up across the sample while his expected ERA has been stepping down. He walks 10.5% of batters, a touch above league, which is the one thing keeping this from being clean. But the run prevention is earned, not propped up by luck. Buy. A 3.54 ERA and 1.32 WHIP at 5 K is deep-league-only, so acquire as a stash asset, not a roster-anywhere add.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.8%—+6.4% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm
  • Walk %10.5%—−3.0% ▼vs his ~13.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.54, 0.56 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.9%
34.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.1%vs his norm —
129 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.5%
8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
129 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.292
.292*
lg avg .315 ▼−.023vs his norm —
209 / 200 TBF
xERA3.54
3.54*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.56vs his norm —
209 / 200 TBF
ERA4.91
4.91*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.81vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
47.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
norm26.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +6.4% ▲
209 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.5%
norm10.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm −3.0% ▼
209 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
129 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
209 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.7%
32.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
209 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
786 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→23.7%signal5 K — K% 26.8% (signal) tempered to career ~20.4% → projected 23.7% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.54signal3.54 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.54 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.5% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-1 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.54 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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