MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Caleb Kilian
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Caleb Kilian

SF·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.61 sits 0.49 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 21ERA 3.70WHIP 1.25W 1–2SV 2–3

Kilian is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a real arm.

His ERA is 4.74, but the skill it regresses to is better. His expected ERA is 3.61, well below the league average of 4.10, and his BABIP-against of .316 is bloating the ERA — BABIP-against needs around 800 BIP to be reliable and he has 100, so that gap is luck. His fastball velocity has stepped up across the sample, sitting at 96.8 mph, nearly three ticks above league average. He also strikes out 28.1% of batters, six points above league, and his barrel rate allowed is right at league average. The arm is fine; the surface is not. Buy low. 21 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.25 WHIP / 1-2 W / 2-3 SV — a deep-league buy-low target with skill that outpaces the current count line.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.1%—+7.7% ▲vs his ~20.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.61 sits 0.49 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.0%
36.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm —
100 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.0%
believable since May 298.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm —
100 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.296
.296*
lg avg .315 ▼−.019vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
xERA3.61
3.61*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.49vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
167 / 200 TBF
ERA4.74
4.74*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.64vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.1%
norm28.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.1%vs his norm +7.7% ▲
167 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
norm10.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm −2.7% ▼Walk % is below his ~13.5% norm — expect it to rise.
167 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
100 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
13.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Chase %31.4%
31.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
167 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.8 mph
96.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.8 mphvs his norm —
624 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.1%→23.9%signal21 K — K% 28.1% (signal) tempered to career ~20.4% → projected 23.9% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 3.61noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.61 (noise) blended 5% skill / 95% league 3.70 at 26 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 5…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups