Rest of Season Projection
CalebCategoryRichard
38K ←35
3.72ERA ←3.75
1.25WHIP ←1.26
2–4W2–4
3–6SV →4–8
Current Season
CalebCategoryRichard
29K ←21
3.81ERA →3.38
1.15WHIP ←1.75
2W2
3SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Caleb Kilian
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.215 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.13 is 0.55 above the ERA — regression coming
Richard Lovelady
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.16)
Caleb Kilian: 38 K / 3.72 ERA. Richard Lovelady: 35 K / 3.75 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).