week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Richard Lovelady
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.62); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 20ERA 3.77WHIP 1.26W 1–2SV 2–5
Lovelady is a hold — league average, nothing pulling either way.
ROS projects K 21 YTD → 20 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %18.5%—−2.1% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.62)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.4%vs his norm —
95 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
95 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.361
lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
xERA5.62
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.52vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
146 / 200 TBF
ERA3.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
30.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −2.1% ▼
146 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +4.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.7% norm — expect it to fall.
146 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.341
lg avg .295 ▲+.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
95 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
146 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.6 mphvs his norm —
539 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.5%→19.7%signal20 K — K% 18.5% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 19.7% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.62noise3.77 ERA — xERA 5.62 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 14.4% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.73 skill WHIP, blended 4…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-5 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.77 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.