week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Richard Lovelady
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.73); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.26ERA 3.77W 0–0SV 0–0
Lovelady is a hold — the profile is ordinary and stable
ROS projects K 21 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.75 YTD → 1.26 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %14.0%—+4.3% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm
- Strikeout %18.0%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.73)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed28.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−11.7%vs his norm —
113 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm —
113 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.361
lg avg .315 ▲+.046vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
xERA5.73
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.63vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
172 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
35 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
172 / 70 TBF
Walk %14.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm +4.3% ▲
172 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.346
lg avg .295 ▲+.051vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
172 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo91.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−2.7 mphvs his norm —
640 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.0%→19.4%signal0 K — K% 18.0% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 19.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.73noise3.77 ERA — xERA 5.73 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 14.0% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.73 skill WHIP, blended 4…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep4 SV, 3.77 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.