Rest of Season Projection
MattCategoryRichard
30K →32
3.71ERA ←3.76
1.25WHIP ←1.26
3–9W ←2–4
1–3SV →4–8
Current Season
MattCategoryRichard
19K →21
2.63ERA ←3.38
1.29WHIP ←1.75
4W ←2
1SV →4
What Each Player's System Trusts
Matt Gage
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.06 is 1.43 above the ERA — regression coming
Richard Lovelady
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.42)
Matt Gage: 30 K / 3.71 ERA. Richard Lovelady: 32 K / 3.76 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).