MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Matt Gage
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Matt Gage

SF·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Gage is a sell-high — BABIP noise flatters his ERA.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.00 is 1.37 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed27.1%
27.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−12.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL70 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
5.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL70 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001too early to trust
NOISE102 / 200 TBF
xERA4.00
4.00
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.10too early to trust
NOISE102 / 200 TBF
ERA2.63
2.63
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.47too early to trust
NOISE24 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
18.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL102 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%too early to trust
NOISE102 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.227
.227
lg avg .295 ▼−.068too early to trust
NOISE70 / 800 BIP