week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH
Matt Gage
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.30); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 18ERA 3.76WHIP 1.26W 2–5SV 0–2
Gage is a hold — league average, no signal either way.
ROS projects K 19 YTD → 18 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.5%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~20.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.30)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.6%vs his norm —
86 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
86 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.352
lg avg .315 ▲+.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 200 TBF
xERA5.30
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.20vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 200 TBF
ERA5.60
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.50vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
27.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.5%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
126 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.5%vs his norm +2.7% ▲Walk % is above his ~10.8% norm — expect it to fall.
126 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
86 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.6%vs his norm —
126 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
526 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.5%→19.6%signal18 K — K% 17.5% (signal) lifted to career ~20.9% → projected 19.6% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 5.30noise3.76 ERA — xERA 5.30 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 13.5% + contactnoise1.26 WHIP — a 14% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.67 skill WHIP, blended 4…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-2 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.