MLB Daily DeltaWeek 16 · July 15, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Clay Holmes
NYM · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 2 (K, WHIP); Clay Holmes wins 2 (ERA, W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.2
Clay Holmes
94.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.7%
Clay Holmes
10.4%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
24.0%
Clay Holmes
20.9%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
31.9%
Clay Holmes
32.9%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
39.5%
Clay Holmes
44.0%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
10.0%
Clay Holmes
5.3%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.318
Clay Holmes
.306
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
26.81
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.18
Clay Holmes
26.81
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.39
3.88
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
.9801.51
now 1.39
1.31
Clay Holmes
.9801.51
now 1.10
1.33

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4071.60
now 64
64
Clay Holmes
4071.60
now 45
52
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.4007.60
now 3
24
Clay Holmes
.4007.60
now 4
36

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Buy LowAaron Nola — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
Sell HighClay Holmes — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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