MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 29, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Clay Holmes
CHC · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 1 (WHIP); Clay Holmes wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.3
Clay Holmes
92.9
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.6%
Clay Holmes
9.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
23.8%
Clay Holmes
18.6%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
33.3%
Clay Holmes
32.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
40.3%
Clay Holmes
40.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.3%
Clay Holmes
4.4%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.314
Clay Holmes
.303
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
26.81
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.15
Clay Holmes
26.81
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.39
3.87
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
.9801.51
now 1.39
1.31
Clay Holmes
.9801.51
now 1.10
1.38

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4089.60
now 64
0
Clay Holmes
4089.60
now 45
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0005.60
now 3
0–0
Clay Holmes
.0005.60
now 4
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Sell HighClay Holmes — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.88
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