Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryNick
101K ←64
4.26ERA ←4.32
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–6W →5–10
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryNick
64K ←41
5.55ERA →1.62
1.39WHIP →1.11
3W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Nick Martinez
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.44 +0.34 vs league with no luck excuse
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Aaron Nola: 101 K / 4.26 ERA. Nick Martinez: 64 K / 4.32 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).