Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryMick
101K ←79
4.26ERA →4.10
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–6W2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryMick
64K ←23
5.55ERA →3.98
1.39WHIP ←1.57
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Mick Abel
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.11)
Aaron Nola: 101 K / 4.26 ERA. Mick Abel: 79 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).