Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryTrevor
107K ←77
4.24ERA →4.07
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–7W →4–8
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryTrevor
64K ←27
5.55ERA →4.34
1.39WHIP →1.07
3W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.32 is +0.22 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Trevor McDonald
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.73)
Aaron Nola: 107 K / 4.24 ERA. Trevor McDonald: 77 K / 4.07 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).