MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor McDonald
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Trevor McDonald

SF·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.06); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 12ERA 4.06WHIP 1.35W 1–1SV 0

McDonald is a hold — league-average skill, nothing unstable underneath

His expected ERA is 4.06, essentially level with the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .311, right against a league mark of .315. Nothing on his line is propped up or dragged down, so there is no luck story to buy into or sell against. The trajectory is the one detail that leans positive: his expected ERA has stepped down across the sample, small movement in the good direction. His strikeout rate of 18.4% sits below the league average of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate is 9.5% against 11.0%, so the misses are not there to lift him above the middle. This is the level he's at. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.4%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.06)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
217 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.1%
4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
217 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
xERA4.06
4.06*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.04vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
5.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
norm18.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
310 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
310 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
217 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1137 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.8%signal12 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 19.8% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.06signal4.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop12 K ROS, 4.06 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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