MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor McDonald
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Trevor McDonald

SF·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.88); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 51ERA 3.88WHIP 1.35W 2–5SV 0

McDonald is a hold — league-average skills, no edge either way.

His expected ERA of 3.88 is within striking distance of the league average of 4.10, and the number is stable at 291 batters faced. His xwOBA allowed (.306) and barrel rate allowed (3.9%) are both slightly better than average, but his strikeout rate is below league average and his swing-and-miss rate is below average too. Walks and chase rate are near average. Nothing stands out as bet-on or sell-off—the skill set is roughly league average with no luck force at work. His xERA has been stepping down across the sample, but not enough to change the picture. If you have him, hang on. If not, this is not where the edge is. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.6%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—+2.5% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.88)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
205 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.9%
3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
205 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
believable since Jun 21.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
291 / 200 TBF
xERA3.88
3.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.22vs his norm —
291 / 200 TBF
ERA5.02
5.02*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.92vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
66.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.6%
norm18.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.4%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
291 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +2.5% ▲
291 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
.298*
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
205 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.6%
9.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
291 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
29.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
291 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.0 mph
94.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph 0.0 mphvs his norm —
1070 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.6%→19.9%signal51 K — K% 18.6% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 19.9% over ~51 remaining IP.
xERA 3.88signal3.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.296 gives a 1.37 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop51 K ROS, 3.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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