MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Trevor McDonald
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Trevor McDonald

SF·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.09); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.09WHIP 1.35W 0–0SV 0

McDonald is a hold — league-average arm, nothing unstable

His expected ERA is 4.09, basically level with the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 310 batters — past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .311 against a .315 league average, so the contact he allows is ordinary too. The strikeout rate is the one wobble: 18.4%, well below the league's 22.0%, and a swinging-strike rate of 9.5% matches it. He does not miss bats, but he does not walk anyone either, at 7.4%. Barrel rate allowed of 4.1% is half the league average, though 217 batted balls is a modest base for it. Limited data here: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. There is no inflated BABIP-against to sell and no suppressed one to buy. Nothing is pulling him in either direction. Hold. A 0 K / 4.09 ERA / 1.35 WHIP line is waiver-level noise, so the hold is just avoiding a churn move — a drop-tier arm either way.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %18.4%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~21.9% career norm
  • Walk %7.4%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.09)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm —
217 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.1%
4.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
217 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.311
.311*
lg avg .315 ▼−.004vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
4.09*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
310 / 200 TBF
ERA5.12
5.12*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
70.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.4%
norm18.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
310 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
norm7.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
310 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.297
.297*
lg avg .295 ▲+.002vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
217 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.5%
9.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.3%
29.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
310 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.7 mph
93.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.3 mphvs his norm —
1137 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.4%→19.8%signal0 K — K% 18.4% (signal) lifted to career ~21.9% → projected 19.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal4.09 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.09 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.35 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.09 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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