Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryJ.T.
107K ←84
4.24ERA →3.76
1.33WHIP ←1.34
3–7W3–7
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryJ.T.
64K ←52
5.55ERA →2.87
1.39WHIP →1.14
3W3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.32 is +0.22 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
J.T. Ginn
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.76 is 1.02 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Nola: 107 K / 4.24 ERA. J.T. Ginn: 84 K / 3.76 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).