week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
J.T. Ginn
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.09 is 0.38 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.80 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 11ERA 4.09WHIP 1.34W 0–1SV 0
Ginn is a sell-high — his ERA rides on a BABIP that won't hold.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.9%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~23.2% career norm
- Walk %9.8%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.259 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.09 is 0.38 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
393 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
393 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.312
lg avg .315 ▼−.003vs his norm —
580 / 200 TBF
xERA4.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.01vs his norm —
580 / 200 TBF
ERA3.71
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
138.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
580 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
580 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.259
lg avg .295 ▼−.036vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
393 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.2%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
580 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
580 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
2185 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.9%→21.5%signal11 K — K% 20.9% (signal) lifted to career ~23.2% → projected 21.5% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.09signal4.09 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.09 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.8% + contactsignal1.34 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.36 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.09 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.