MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Quinn Mathews
STL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
▶
◀
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 1 (WHIP); Quinn Mathews wins 1 (ERA); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.3
Quinn Mathews
93.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.6%
Quinn Mathews
12.3%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
23.8%
Quinn Mathews
21.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
33.3%
Quinn Mathews
26.0%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
40.3%
Quinn Mathews
36.8%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.3%
Quinn Mathews
4.9%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.314
Quinn Mathews
.302
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
2.826.33
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.15
Quinn Mathews
2.826.33
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.60
3.84
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
1.112
now 1.39
1.31
Quinn Mathews
1.112
now 1.80
1.38

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4089.60
now 64
0
Quinn Mathews
4089.60
now 3
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0004.20
now 3
0–0
Quinn Mathews
.0004.20
now 0
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · leans buyQuinn Mathews — hold.conf 0.60
Tweet