week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Quinn Mathews
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.76); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.30ERA 4.10W 0–0SV 0
Mathews is a hold — league average and stable, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 3 YTD → 0 ROS, WHIP 1.80 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.76)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.2%vs his norm —
132 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
132 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.299
lg avg .315 ▼−.016vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
xERA3.76
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
ERA3.65
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
190 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.5%vs his norm —
190 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.307
lg avg .295 ▲+.012vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
132 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Chase %26.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.6 mphvs his norm —
786 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.5%→20.8%signal0 K — K% 20.5% (signal) lifted to SP mean ~22.0% → projected 20.8% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.76noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.76 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 5 IP.
BB% 9.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.