week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Mick Abel
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
ON THE 60-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (5.29); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.10WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0
Abel is a hold — league average, nothing unstable either way.
ROS projects K 23 YTD → 0 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %24.7%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~23.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (5.29)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
57 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —Barrel % Allowed is below the ~8.0% league average — expect it to rise.
57 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.349
lg avg .315 ▲+.034vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
xERA5.29
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.19vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
93 / 200 TBF
ERA3.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
20.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
93 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.8%vs his norm +1.1% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.7% norm — expect it to fall.
93 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.386
lg avg .295 ▲+.091vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
57 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
93 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.8 mphvs his norm —
357 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.7%→23.7%signal0 K — K% 24.7% (signal) tempered to career ~23.2% → projected 23.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.29noise4.10 ERA — xERA 5.29 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 20 IP.
BB% 10.8% + contactnoise1.30 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.44 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.