Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryCarlos
100K ←73
4.29ERA →4.10
1.34WHIP →1.30
3–6W2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryCarlos
64K ←20
5.55ERA →3.32
1.39WHIP →1.32
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.337 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.39 is +0.29 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Carlos Rodón
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.28)
Aaron Nola: 100 K / 4.29 ERA. Carlos Rodón: 73 K / 4.10 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).