week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Carlos Rodón
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.22 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.89WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0
Rodón is a sell-high — his 2.67 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %11.2%—+2.2% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
- Strikeout %26.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~26.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.220 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 1.22 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
209 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
209 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
340 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
340 / 200 TBF
ERA2.67
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
84.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
340 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.2%vs his norm +2.2% ▲
340 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.220
lg avg .295 ▼−.075vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
209 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
340 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
340 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.3 mphvs his norm —
1438 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→26.6%signal0 K — K% 26.8% (signal) tempered to career ~26.2% → projected 26.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 11.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.89 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.