week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL
Carlos Rodón
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.64); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 47WHIP 1.30ERA 4.10W 2–3SV 0
Rodón is a hold — league average, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 20 YTD → 47 ROS, ERA 3.32 YTD → 4.10 ROS, WHIP 1.32 YTD → 1.30 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %13.4%—+4.4% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
- Strikeout %26.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~26.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.64)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
115 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —
115 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.297
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
xERA3.64
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.46vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
194 / 200 TBF
ERA3.30
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
46.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
194 / 70 TBF
Walk %13.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.4%vs his norm +4.4% ▲
194 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
115 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.9%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
194 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
828 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.8%→26.5%signal47 K — K% 26.8% (signal) tempered to career ~26.2% → projected 26.5% over ~46 remaining…
xERA 3.64noise4.10 ERA — xERA 3.64 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 4.10 at 19 IP.
BB% 13.4% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.47 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop47 K ROS, 4.10 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.