week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekNO CALL
Carlos Rodón
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.80 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 11ERA 3.89WHIP 1.38W 0–1SV 0
Rodón is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.7%—+3.7% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
- Strikeout %26.2%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~26.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.227 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.89 is 0.80 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.5%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —
161 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
161 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.305
lg avg .315 ▼−.010vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
xERA3.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.21vs his norm —
267 / 200 TBF
ERA3.09
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.01vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
64 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
267 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.7%vs his norm +3.7% ▲
267 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.227
lg avg .295 ▼−.068vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
161 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
267 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo94.4 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+0.4 mphvs his norm —
1147 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.2%→26.2%signal11 K — K% 26.2% (signal) tempered to career ~26.2% → projected 26.2% over ~11 remaining…
xERA 3.89signal3.89 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.89 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 12.7% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 13% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 3.89 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.