week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Nick Martinez
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.98 is 0.88 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.98WHIP 1.18W 0–0SV 0
Martinez is a sell-high — his ERA is running on borrowed luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %3.6%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
- Strikeout %15.1%—−1.6% ▼vs his ~16.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.267 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.98 is 0.88 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed32.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−7.1%vs his norm —
584 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
584 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
722 / 200 TBF
xERA3.98
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.12vs his norm —
722 / 200 TBF
ERA3.10
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.00vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
180 / 200 IP
Strikeout %15.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm −1.6% ▼
722 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.4%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
722 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
584 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
722 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
722 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
2524 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 15.1%→15.4%signal0 K — K% 15.1% (signal) lifted to career ~16.7% → projected 15.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.98signal3.98 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.98 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 3.6% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.275 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.98 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.