week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
Nick Martinez
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.20 is 1.16 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 8ERA 4.17WHIP 1.20W 1–1SV 0
Martinez is a sell-high — his 3.04 ERA is running on luck
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %3.7%—−3.4% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
- Strikeout %14.8%—−1.9% ▼vs his ~16.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.20 is 1.16 above the ERA — regression coming
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —
521 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
521 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
643 / 200 TBF
xERA4.20
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.10vs his norm —
643 / 200 TBF
ERA3.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.06vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
160 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.2%vs his norm −1.9% ▼
643 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm −3.4% ▼
643 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
521 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %8.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
643 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.5%vs his norm —
643 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.7 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.3 mphvs his norm —
2240 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.8%→15.3%signal8 K — K% 14.8% (signal) lifted to career ~16.7% → projected 15.3% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.20signal4.17 ERA — xERA 4.20 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 67 IP.
BB% 3.7% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.276 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep8 K ROS, 4.17 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.