MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Nick Martinez
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD

Nick Martinez

TB·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.67 is 2.02 above the ERA, regression coming; strikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league, limits the ceiling — BABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95
ROSK 38ERA 4.47WHIP 1.26W 3–6SV 0

Martinez is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.65, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. His BABIP-against is .266, 29 points below league average, and BABIP-against needs about 800 balls in play to stabilize. He has 344, so a good chunk of that gap is luck. His expected ERA is 4.67 — two runs higher — and his xwOBA allowed is .333, also above average. His strikeout rate is 14.5%, well below his career baseline of 16.7% and trending down. He limits walks and chases at above-average rates, but the lack of whiffs limits his ceiling. When the BABIP normalizes, the ERA will follow. Sell high. 38 K, 4.47 ERA, 1.26 WHIP — this is a sell-high window before regression turns him into a streamer.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %4.4%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~7.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %14.5%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~16.7% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.67 is 2.02 above the ERA — regression coming
  • p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 14% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.6%vs his norm —
344 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
344 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.333
.333*
lg avg .315 ▲+.018vs his norm —
428 / 200 TBF
xERA4.67
4.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —
428 / 200 TBF
ERA2.65
2.65*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.45vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
105.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %14.5%
norm14.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−7.5%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
428 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.4%
norm4.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
428 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.266
.266*
lg avg .295 ▼−.029vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
344 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.1%
9.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
428 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
428 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.9 mph
92.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.1 mphvs his norm —
1482 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 14.5%→15.2%signal38 K — K% 14.5% (signal) lifted to career ~16.7% → projected 15.2% over ~60 remaining IP.
xERA 4.67signal4.47 ERA — xERA 4.67 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 67 IP.
BB% 4.4% + contactsignal1.26 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.282 gives a 1.26 skill WHIP.
run support + role3-6 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop38 K ROS, 4.47 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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