Rest of Season Projection
MichaelCategoryNick
98K ←71
3.95ERA ←4.13
1.32WHIP →1.29
4–9W →5–12
0SV0
Current Season
MichaelCategoryNick
65K ←41
3.23ERA →1.62
1.12WHIP →1.11
4W →5
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Michael Wacha
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.72 above the ERA — regression coming
Nick Martinez
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.15)
- p_k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 15% is stable and well below league — limits the ceiling
Michael Wacha: 98 K / 3.95 ERA. Nick Martinez: 71 K / 4.13 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).