week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Michael Wacha
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.86 is 0.61 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 12ERA 3.86WHIP 1.20W 0–1SV 0
Wacha is a sell-high — his 3.25 ERA is BABIP luck
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Walk %6.5%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~7.4% career norm
- Strikeout %20.0%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~20.7% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.255 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.86 is 0.61 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
535 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
535 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.304
lg avg .315 ▼−.011vs his norm —
736 / 200 TBF
xERA3.86
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.24vs his norm —
736 / 200 TBF
ERA3.25
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.85vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
182.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
736 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm −0.9% ▼
736 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
535 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
736 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
736 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —
2726 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.0%→20.2%signal12 K — K% 20.0% (signal) held to career ~20.7% → projected 20.2% over ~14 remaining IP.
xERA 3.86signal3.86 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.86 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.268 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep12 K ROS, 3.86 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.