week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Michael Wacha
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Wacha is a sell-high — his ERA is BABIP smoke and mirrors.
His ERA sits at 3.23, nearly a full run below league average, but the number driving it is unreliable. His BABIP-against is .253, 42 points below the league average of .295 — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize, and he has 208. That gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the noise and his expected ERA is 3.95, 0.72 higher than the ERA, and it has been stepping down across the sample — meaning the underlying skill is not as sharp as the surface. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and contact quality allowed all sit near league average; there is no elite-stuff story to fall back on. The ERA is a mirage that will fade as the BABIP normalizes. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.94
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.253 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.95 is 0.72 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.0%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL208 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
lg avg .315 ▼−.001trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL302 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL302 / 200 TBF
ERA3.23
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.87too early to trust
NOISE75.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL302 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL302 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.253
lg avg .295 ▼−.042too early to trust
NOISE208 / 800 BIP