Is Michael Wacha a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Hold — mixed signals; no compelling reason to add or drop right now.

What is Michael Wacha's rest-of-season outlook?

Roughly league-average with nothing unstable driving it. Hold.

week 17

this weekHOLD

last weekSELL-HIGH

Michael Wacha

KC·P

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026

Hold · steady skill near league average (4.13); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60

ROSK 54ERA 4.12WHIP 1.31W 2–5SV 0

Wacha is a hold — league average, stable, no edge either way.

His expected ERA is 4.13, almost exactly the league average of 4.10. The sample covers 487 batters faced, well past the point where xERA becomes reliable, so this number is steady. His actual ERA is not part of this analysis, but the skill metrics — strikeout rate 19.7%, walk rate 7.0%, swinging-strike rate 10.6% — all hover around the league mean. Contact suppression is fine: hard-hit rate allowed (36.4%) and barrel rate (6.3%) are both below league average. No luck stat is swinging the line dramatically; nothing is driving the line up or down. He is what the numbers say — a roughly league-average pitcher. There is no buy signal and no sell signal. If you own him, keep him. If you don't, this is not where the edge is. Hold. 54 K with a 4.12 ERA is a streamer at best; hold if owned, leave on waivers in standard formats.

VS His Norm

Strikeout %19.7%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~20.7% career norm
Walk %7.0%—−0.4% ▼vs his ~7.4% career norm

Drivers

xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.13)

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —

352 / 50 BBE

Barrel % Allowed6.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —

352 / 60 BBE

xwOBA Allowed.315

lg avg .315 .000vs his norm —

487 / 200 TBF

xERA4.13

lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —

487 / 200 TBF

ERA3.77

lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.

119.3 / 200 IP

Strikeout %19.7%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm −1.0% ▼

487 / 70 TBF

Walk %7.0%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm −0.4% ▼

487 / 170 TBF

BABIP Against.280

lg avg .295 ▼−.015vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.

352 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %10.6%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —

487 / 60 TBF

Chase %29.6%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.1%vs his norm —

487 / 60 TBF

Fastball Velo93.1 mph

lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

1778 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

K% 19.7%→20.0%signal54 K — K% 19.7% (signal) held to career ~20.7% → projected 20.0% over ~62 remaining IP.

xERA 4.13signal4.12 ERA — xERA 4.13 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 75 IP.

BB% 7.0% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…

run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.

role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.

rosterdrop54 K ROS, 4.12 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons