week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Michael Wacha
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 4.01 is 0.69 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.93 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.01WHIP 1.17W 0–0SV 0
Wacha is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.5%—−1.2% ▼vs his ~20.7% career norm
- Walk %6.7%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~7.4% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.246 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.01 is 0.69 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
593 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
593 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.308
lg avg .315 ▼−.007vs his norm —
812 / 200 TBF
xERA4.01
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.09vs his norm —
812 / 200 TBF
ERA3.32
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.78vs his norm —
200.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.5%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.5%vs his norm −1.2% ▼
812 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −0.7% ▼
812 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.246
lg avg .295 ▼−.049vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
593 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
812 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+1.0%vs his norm —
812 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
3028 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.5%→19.7%signal0 K — K% 19.5% (signal) held to career ~20.7% → projected 19.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.01signal4.01 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.01 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.259 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 4.01 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.