Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategorySpencer
111K ←97
4.23ERA ←4.65
1.29WHIP ←1.43
3–7W →10–21
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategorySpencer
64K ←43
5.55ERA →1.34
1.39WHIP →1.13
3W →7
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.30)
Spencer Arrighetti
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.229 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.95 is 3.01 above the ERA — regression coming
Aaron Nola: 111 K / 4.23 ERA. Spencer Arrighetti: 97 K / 4.65 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).